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1- Department of urban Planning, North Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
2- Department of Urban Planning, North Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
3- Department of Environment, North Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran.
2- Department of Urban Planning, North Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
3- Department of Environment, North Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran.
Abstract: (183 Views)
Objective: The present study aims to evaluate urban resilience indicators in the coastal cities of Nowshahr and Chalous against flood crises and to provide a localized and structured model for its enhancement. The main novelty of this research lies in the integration of Delphi method, Interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM), and Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) for the first time in the coastal region of Mazandaran, to identify the hierarchical and causal relationships among the six dimensions of urban resilience, which has been overlooked in previous studies.
Methods: This study is applied in terms of objective and descriptive-analytical in nature with a mixed-methods (qualitative-quantitative) approach. In the first phase, effective indicators of urban resilience were identified and validated using documentary studies and the Delphi method (with the participation of 15 experts in three consecutive rounds). Subsequently, the hierarchical structure of the indicators was developed using Interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM). To empirically test the model and analyze the causal relationships among resilience dimensions, Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) was employed using SmartPLS software and the Bootstrapping method with 5000 replications on data collected from 150 questionnaires.
Results: Based on the Delphi results, 42 indicators in six main dimensions (institutional-managerial, infrastructural-physical, economic, socio-cultural, environmental-natural, and emergency preparedness and response) were confirmed. The ISM results indicated that "existence of a comprehensive crisis management plan" and "early warning system" serve as key drivers located at the lower levels of the model. Moreover, SEM analysis revealed that institutional-managerial (path coefficient = 0.744), infrastructural-physical, and economic dimensions play the most significant roles in urban resilience. Model fit indices (SRMR=0.070, NFI=0.91, RMSEA=0.072) indicated good model fit.
Conclusion: This study, by presenting a valid and localized causal-structural model, demonstrates that enhancing urban resilience against floods requires simultaneous interventions at institutional, physical, social, and spatial levels. The final model can serve as a decision-making foundation for urban planning, crisis management, and regional policymaking in Iran's coastal cities.
Methods: This study is applied in terms of objective and descriptive-analytical in nature with a mixed-methods (qualitative-quantitative) approach. In the first phase, effective indicators of urban resilience were identified and validated using documentary studies and the Delphi method (with the participation of 15 experts in three consecutive rounds). Subsequently, the hierarchical structure of the indicators was developed using Interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM). To empirically test the model and analyze the causal relationships among resilience dimensions, Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) was employed using SmartPLS software and the Bootstrapping method with 5000 replications on data collected from 150 questionnaires.
Results: Based on the Delphi results, 42 indicators in six main dimensions (institutional-managerial, infrastructural-physical, economic, socio-cultural, environmental-natural, and emergency preparedness and response) were confirmed. The ISM results indicated that "existence of a comprehensive crisis management plan" and "early warning system" serve as key drivers located at the lower levels of the model. Moreover, SEM analysis revealed that institutional-managerial (path coefficient = 0.744), infrastructural-physical, and economic dimensions play the most significant roles in urban resilience. Model fit indices (SRMR=0.070, NFI=0.91, RMSEA=0.072) indicated good model fit.
Conclusion: This study, by presenting a valid and localized causal-structural model, demonstrates that enhancing urban resilience against floods requires simultaneous interventions at institutional, physical, social, and spatial levels. The final model can serve as a decision-making foundation for urban planning, crisis management, and regional policymaking in Iran's coastal cities.
Keywords: Urban Resilience, Crisis Management, Flood, Nowshahr, Chalous, Interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM)
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