Introduction
The current research aims to present strategic fire management plans and implement the strategies to reduce the vulnerability of worn-out buildings without historical value in district 19 of Tehran, Iran. In this regard, the A’WOT method was used, which is a combination of the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and SWOT (Strength, Weakness, Opportunity, Threat) analysis. District 19 is located in the southern part of Tehran near the districts 16, 17, 18 and 20. The total area of this district is 92140000 m2 and has 5 regions, 13 neighborhoods, a total population of 295627 people, 77764 households, a worn-out tissue area of 160000 m2 and a worn-out tissue percentage of 0.8%. In this area, 8 fire stations are responsible for establishing sustainable safety in urban crisis management and extinguishing fires. In providing fire management strategies using international standards and integrated methods, no study has been conducted in this district of Tehran so far.
According to the purpose, two questions are raised: 1) What measures can be used to reduce the vulnerability of worn-out buildings to the occurrence of possible fires in the study area? 2) Is the stakeholder matrix a suitable method for managing fire incidents in the study area? To answer these questions, the following hypotheses were formulated: i) Scientific and practical strategies can reduce the vulnerability of worn-out buildings to fire incidents in the study area; ii) Fire management in the study stations is predictable.
Methods
This is strategic applied study. Participants included 20 crisis management experts and managers of the fire departments. The information was collected using interviews and brainstorming. First, based on the AHP method, the internal factors (strength and weakness) and external factors (threat and opportunity) were weighted and scored on a scale from 1 (a very serious threat or weakness) to 5 (an excellent opportunity or strength). Then, the total score (G×W) was obtained by multiplying the weights (W) by the scores (S) and the internal factor evaluation (IFE) and external factor evaluation (EFE) matrices were formed. Then, the integrated matrix was written, and the strategies were prioritized (quantitative strategic planning matrix [QSPM]). To determine the total attractiveness score (TAS) of each strategy, the weights of the factors (W) were multiplied by the attractiveness score (AS) which is between 1 and 4. In the final step, Freeman’s stakeholder matrix was used to present the strategic fire management plans.
Results
A total of 10 internal factors (5 strengths and 5 weaknesses each) and 10 external factors (5 opportunities and 5 threats) were identified. Based on the weights, the strengths were ranked first (0.48). The inconsistency ratio was 0.06, which shows that the factors were consistent. The sensitivity analysis of the factors showed that the strengths had the most sensitivity (50%) and the WT strategy had the most changes (85%). The final score of the IFE matrix was 3.03. Since this score is more than 2.5, the strengths were more than the weaknesses, and the strategies were offensive. The final score of the EFE matrix was 2.33, which is less than 2.5; therefore, the threats were more than the opportunities, and the strategies were competitive.
The hierarchy of the strategies’ weights with an inconsistency ratio of 0.03 showed that the offensive strategies (SO) were in the first rank with a weight of 0.48 and the defensive strategies (WO) were ranked second with a weight of 0.28, followed by the WT and ST strategies. In the offensive strategies, the “construction of new fire stations with advanced firefighting equipment” had the highest weight and was in the first rank with a weight of 0.39. In the competitive strategies, “the non-cooperation of owners and occupants, leading to the destruction of the urban environment,” was in the first rank with a weight of 0.38. In conservative strategies, “the use of advanced fire extinguishing equipment to reduce the destruction of environment” was in the first rank with a weight of 0.35.
Based on the evaluation of QSPM, IFE and EFE matrices, the strategic plans were finally ranked as follows: “The use of local expert forces familiar with the region” with a score of 5.22, “using movable conex boxes to command operations” with a score of 5.08, and “building new stations with advanced firefighting equipment” with a score of 4.96.
Based on Freeman’s stakeholder matrix, the offensive strategies “building new fire stations with advanced firefighting equipment,” with a score of 107 and “visiting worn-out buildings and holding a maneuver to increase the personnel operational capacity” with a score of 98 were placed in the first and second ranks, respectively.
Conclusion
The number of worn-out buildings vulnerable to fire accidents is high in district 19 of Tehran. By examining the weaknesses, strengths, opportunities, and threats in this district, we presented strategies to reduce the fire vulnerability of these buildings. The AʼWOT analysis is a proper scientific and operational method for fire management in worn-out buildings in the 19th district of Tehran. Freeman’s stakeholder matrix can be a suitable model for ranking fire management strategies. Based on this matrix, offensive strategies to manage the fires in the study area can be predicted and implemented.
Ethical Considerations
Compliance with ethical guidelines
There were no ethical considerations to be considered in this research.
Funding
This research was extracted from doctoral dissertation of Afrasiab Khairsadat approved by North Tehran Branch of Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran.
Authors' contributions
Methodology and conclusions: Seyed Ali Jozi and Mahnaz Mirza Ebrahim Tehrani; Data analysis, genealogical method and research background: Afrasyab Kheirdast; Preparing the introduction, data analysis: Sahar Rezaian.
Conflicts of interest
The authors declared no conflict of interest.
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