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Meraji M, Yazdi J, Shahsavandi M, Aghayari J, Abdi A. Estimation of Flood Impacts on Urban Transportation Time and the Assessment of Its Economic Damage. Disaster Prev. Manag. Know. 2026; 15 (4) :574-599
URL: http://dpmk.ir/article-1-797-en.html

Background and objective This study investigates urban flood inundation in road networks, its effects on urban traffic, and the estimation of indirect economic losses caused by increased travel time in a region located in northern Tehran. The main objective was to assess how urban flooding affects transportation performance and to quantify the associated economic damages resulting from travel delays.
Method A two-dimensional hydraulic model, MIKE 21, was applied using a 5-m computational mesh and a 1-m digital elevation model over an area of 41.44 km2, including several main channels in northeastern Tehran. The model performance was validated at the channel flow scale using field measurements, including water level observations obtained from ultrasonic level sensors and discharge estimations based on the float method. After model implementation, flood inundation extents corresponding to the 10-year and 100-year return periods were derived. To estimate economic losses due to travel delay, the analysis considered the difference between the maximum allowable highway speed under normal and flood conditions, the average cost of one hour of delay, and traffic volume counts recorded on different days of the week.
Results The results showed that the inundation area for the 10-year and 100-year floods was approximately 140 and 640 hectares, respectively. The maximum flow depth and velocity during the 10-year flood were 1.89 m and 2.19 m/s, respectively, while for the 100-year flood they reached 3.83 m and 4.15 m/s. The estimated travel delay losses on Imam Ali, Hakim, and Hemmat highways under the 10-year flood were approximately 2.65, 1.0, and 1.1 billion rials per day, respectively. For the 100-year flood, the corresponding losses were estimated at about 942, 371.4, and 810 billion rials per day in the year 2023.
Conclusion The findings demonstrate that urban flooding can have substantial impacts on transportation system performance and can impose significant indirect economic losses on urban areas through increased travel time. These results highlight the importance of integrating flood hazard assessment with transportation and economic analysis in urban flood risk management.