Introduction
Iran is one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change due to its geographical and climatic features. One of the most important negative effects of climate change is the increase in temperature, which can increase the risk of wildfires. A change in the average temperature can affect the entire ecosystem. It can even cause an increase in disasters such as droughts, floods, and other hazards. On the other hand, climate change can cause changes in subtropical jet streams, which makes the regions in the middle earth prone to wildfires. Wildfires have been an environmental challenge and one of the threats to a large part of the forests in the world, including Iran. Problems such as increased average temperature, decreased precipitation, relative humidity, increased drought and hot winds play an important role in the extent and frequency of wildfires in Iran. It is very important to investigate the relationship between climatic change and Wildfires in Iran, which are mostly seasonal. Therefore, this study aims to investigate the effect of global warming on the increase in the risk of wildfires in Iran by using remote sensing technology and spatial analysis.

Methods
The temperature data of the synoptic stations (Mehrabad, Yazd, Bam, Shiraz, Isfahan and Bushehr) in a 32-year period from 1988 to 2020 were prepared from the Meteorological Organization. Then, to examine the trend of temperature change, the Excel Macros and XLSTAT plugin software, were used at 95-99% confidence intervals. To identify the vegetation cover, the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), was used (which is the selected index for assessing the risk of wildfires in the stations) from the Landsat 8 satellite with a spatial resolution of 27.84 meters, whose source of data is the Google Earth Engine (GEE). This index indicates the area affected by the fire and its value ranges between -1 and 1. In the next step, to prepare a vegetation map, 10-m resolution land cover 2017 satellite images were extracted from the GEE. Since the topography is the most stable factor in the fire behavior triangle, the elevation, slope and aspect are among the features that affect the spread of fire. Therefore, these parameters (elevation, slope, aspect, and the amount of solar radiation) were used to calculate topography. To measure the amount of solar radiation, we used the ArcGIS software, and its Spatial Analyst toolbox to calculate solar radiation between 4 am and 9 PM, based on watt hours per square meter (WH/m2). In the last step, to identify the spatial distribution of fire occurrence, the Kernel density estimation (KDE) in the ArcMAP was used by classification of the areas into low-risk and high-risk zones based on the MODIS satellite data (2000-2023).

Results 
The results of the temperature change trend analysis at all stations (Mehrabad, Yazd, Bam, Shiraz, Isfahan and Bushehr) in a 32-year period showed a significant upward trend at 95 and 99% confidence intervals. The climate of these areas was undergoing an increasing trend of temperature change and relative warming, and these stations were becoming warmer. The temperature variable in these areas has a trend. It can be due to the increase in greenhouse gases caused by industrial growth, population growth, urban development, and land use changes in big cities of Iran such as Tehran, Isfahan, and Shiraz. The results of some months at the stations were very similar, especially in July. The results of the NDVI showed that areas with high vegetation density were prone to fire. The study of the solar radiation area in the northern highlands of Tehran, in the Caspian coast areas and the northern areas of Iran, northwestern Iran (Ardabil and Tabriz cities), and central Iran (Kerman, Isfahan, Yazd and Shiraz cities) had high pixel values, indicating that the solar radiation received was higher in these areas than in other parts of Iran. Finally, the zone mapping of first occurrence based on the KDE in Iran during 2000-2023 showed 455404 cases of wildfires. According to the zoning map, the provinces of Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad and Khuzestan had experienced the most cases of wildfires and were at higher risk of increased wildfires.

Conclusion
In Iran, due to the increase in temperature and considering its geographical location as well as the migration of westerly winds to higher latitudes, less precipitation occurs. As a result, dry climate occur in Iran, which can increase the risk of wildfires in susceptible areas. Therefore, Iran has faced climate change caused by global warming. Considering the new climate of Iran, which will be hotter and drier, it will be more prone to wildfires. Thus, a comprehensive planning to reduce the effect of climate change is needed in the field of crisis management in Iran. It can help reduce vulnerability and increase resilience.

Ethical Considerations

Funding
This research did not receive any grant from funding agencies in the public, commercial, or non-profit sectors.

Authors' contributions
Software/statistical analysis and original draft preparation: Niloofar Mohammadi; Supervision, controlling the results: Zahra Hejazizadeh; Resources, review and editing: All authors. 

Conflicts of interest
The authors declared no conflict of interest.


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