Enter your email address
Submit
Write your message
Volume 14, Issue 3 (Autumn 2024)
Disaster Prev. Manag. Know. 2024, 14(3): 274-291 |
Back to browse issues page
Download citation:
BibTeX | RIS | EndNote | Medlars | ProCite | Reference Manager | RefWorks
Send citation to:
BibTeX | RIS | EndNote | Medlars | ProCite | Reference Manager | RefWorks
Send citation to:
Moradi M, Ahmadvand A M, Samadi-Foroushani M. Dynamics Analysis of the Aviation Accident Management System in Iran and Identifying the Prevention Policies. Disaster Prev. Manag. Know. 2024; 14 (3) :274-291
URL: http://dpmk.ir/article-1-664-en.html
URL: http://dpmk.ir/article-1-664-en.html
1- Department of Industrial Engineering, School of Industrial Engineering, Eyvanekey University, Eyvanekey, Semnan Province, Iran.
Abstract: (3951 Views)
Background and objective Discovering the causes of aviation accidents and their prevention as well as solving aircraft design and construction defects are needed to prevent aviation accidents in the future. The present study aims to investigate the dynamics of the aviation accident management system in Iran and identify prevention policies.
Method In this study, a dynamic model for the aviation accident management system of Iran was designed based on the opinions of policy-makers and aviation experts. After validation, the model was simulated for a 20-year time horizon. According to the Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis results, the aviation accident prevention policies were identified based on three strategies: Development of the country’s aircraft fleet, standardization and improvement of flight safety, and development of pilots’ flight competencies. After applying the policies of each strategy separately on the tested model, the results were compared.
Results The identified policies included: 1. Financing and budget allocation for aircraft fleet development and purchasing new aircraft to reduce the obsolete fleet by 50% in 5 years, 2. Supporting the aircraft industries in the country and transferring advanced technologies to the country in contracts, 3.) Improving the standards of flight planning and existing aircraft, 4. Increasing the monitoring of flight planning implementation quality according to international standards, 5. Using the aircraft development financial resources for the development of flight safety equipment, 6. Investigating the causes of aviation accidents and implementing risk assessment tests according to national guidelines (CAD 1119), 7. Increasing the productivity of aviation higher education courses and improving the competences of pilots and 8. Increasing the monitoring of pilots’ physical and mental fitness for flight.
Conclusion The proposed dynamics model of the aviation accident management system in Iran is an efficient model according to the data of national and international civil aviation organizations.
Method In this study, a dynamic model for the aviation accident management system of Iran was designed based on the opinions of policy-makers and aviation experts. After validation, the model was simulated for a 20-year time horizon. According to the Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis results, the aviation accident prevention policies were identified based on three strategies: Development of the country’s aircraft fleet, standardization and improvement of flight safety, and development of pilots’ flight competencies. After applying the policies of each strategy separately on the tested model, the results were compared.
Results The identified policies included: 1. Financing and budget allocation for aircraft fleet development and purchasing new aircraft to reduce the obsolete fleet by 50% in 5 years, 2. Supporting the aircraft industries in the country and transferring advanced technologies to the country in contracts, 3.) Improving the standards of flight planning and existing aircraft, 4. Increasing the monitoring of flight planning implementation quality according to international standards, 5. Using the aircraft development financial resources for the development of flight safety equipment, 6. Investigating the causes of aviation accidents and implementing risk assessment tests according to national guidelines (CAD 1119), 7. Increasing the productivity of aviation higher education courses and improving the competences of pilots and 8. Increasing the monitoring of pilots’ physical and mental fitness for flight.
Conclusion The proposed dynamics model of the aviation accident management system in Iran is an efficient model according to the data of national and international civil aviation organizations.
Keywords: Disaster management, System dynamics modeling, Prevention, Aviation accidents, Policy making
Type of Study: Research |
Subject:
Special
Received: 2024/03/2 | Accepted: 2024/05/13 | ePublished: 2024/10/1
Received: 2024/03/2 | Accepted: 2024/05/13 | ePublished: 2024/10/1
| Rights and permissions | |
 |
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License. |
Copyright © 2025 The Author(s)" by "authors retain the copyright and full publishing rights"
This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC-By-NC), which permits use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited and is not used for commercial purposes.
Contact Information
