1 2322-5955 Tehran Disaster Mitigation and Management Organization 727 Special Spatiotemporal Changes in Regional Temperature Influenced by Global Warming in Tehran Province, Iran Mohammadi Niloofar b Hejazizadeh Zahra c Zeaiean Firouzabadi Parviz d Karbalaee AliReza e b Department of Climatology, Faculty of Geographical Sciences, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran. c Department of Climatology, Faculty of Geographical Sciences, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran. d Department of Remote Sensing and GIS, Faculty of Geographical Sciences, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran. e Department of Climatology, Faculty of Geographical Sciences, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran. 1 9 2025 15 2 124 143 21 11 2024 02 03 2025 Background and objective Urban development has changed the characteristics of the land surface. These changes have the potential to influence weather patterns at a local scale. Consequently, with the rise in temperature, urban areas face a significant challenge known as the urban heat island (UHI) effect. This study aims to investigate the spatiotemporal changes in regional temperature and the UHI extent in Tehran Province, Iran, using both meteorological and remote sensing data. Method Daily temperature data from synoptic stations in Tehran (Shemiran, Chitgar, Mehrabad, Abali, Firuzkuh, and Geophysics) from 1996 to 2020 were obtained from the National Meteorological Organization to examine the temperature change using the Mann-Kendall test. To measure the regional average temperature based on MODIS images, the monthly land surface temperature (LST) data during 2014-2024 were downloaded from NASA’s website and calculated in ArcGIS Pro software. To prepare the UHI map, profile, and extent, Landsat 8 satellite images for 2024 were obtained from the USGS website and the thermal profile was drawn for the Tehran districts (1, 9, 18, 22) based on the highest LST. The Climate Engine application was used to prepare the maps for the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and LST between 2013 and 2024. Results All stations’ temperatures showed an increasing trend except for Chitgar. The highest regional temperatures were seen in July and August. In 2015, Varamin and Rey cities experienced the highest LST in these months (52.5 °C), which increased to 52.97 °C in 2018. The study of the relationship between the trend in NDVI and LST showed a direct and inverse relationship. The examination of the UHI extent showed that the heat sources were in the south, southeast, west, southwest, and northern regions of Tehran. The air temperature and LST both showed similar and consistent change patterns in June and July. Conclusion This study reveals that climate change, caused by global warming, summer subtropical high-pressure system, and air subsidence in Iran, as well as increased greenhouse gas emissions, land-use changes, and vegetation loss, have significantly altered the spatiotemporal patterns of temperature in urban areas of Tehran. The findings of this research can be utilized in developing long-term plans for adapting to climate change in the field of urban crisis management.  
729 Special Flood Risk Zoning Using Fuzzy Logic Model; Case Example: Lavasanat Watershed Asghari Sareskanroud Sayad f Madadi Aqil g Sardashti Maherukh h f Department of Natural Geography/Geomorphology Orientation, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili, Ardabil, Iran. g Department of Natural Geography/Geomorphology Orientation, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili, Ardabil, Iran. h Department of Natural Geography/Geomorphology Orientation, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili, Ardabil, Iran. 1 9 2025 15 2 144 159 24 11 2024 12 05 2025 Background and objective Iran is prone to various natural disasters including floods. The location of zones at risks of floods is necessary for making optimal decisions for its management. This study aims to locate the zones with flood risk in the Lavasanat watershed using the fuzzy logic model.  Method In this research, the most important factors affecting floods, including precipitation, slope, land use, distance from waterways, elevation, and lithology, were considered for flood risk zoning. These data were classified and weighted based on the opinions of 30 experts in the fields of geography, natural resources, and civil engineering. A questionnaire was prepared and distributed among them, and they were asked to weigh each factor between 0 and 1. Then, based on the fuzzy logic model, flood zoning maps were prepared in the ArcGIS software. To eliminate the limitations of fuzzy multiplication and sum models, a fuzzy gamma operator of 0.9 was used for flood risk zoning. In the final prepared maps, the study area was divided into five zones in terms of flood risk: Very high risk, high risk, moderate risk, low risk, and no risk (safe). Results The results showed that the very high-risk zone covered 11.8% of the area, the high-risk zone covered 11.3%, the moderate-risk zone covered 26.7%, the low-risk zone covered 30.2%, and the no-risk zone covered 20%. Conclusion More than 23% of the region is in zones at high and very high risk of floods. These zones are mainly located around the main waterway. In urban and rural planning and construction in the study area, the requirements for flood prevention and risk mitigation, including the consideration of flood retention and storage areas, should be taken into account.   743 Special Identifying the Drivers and Consequences of the Mainstream Media’s Effective Activism in Managing Soci-political Crises in Iran Afzali Farooji Mitra i Estarami Fatemeh j i Department of Media Management and Business Communications, Faculty of Business Management, College of Management, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran. j Department of Media and Cultural Management , Faculty of Culture and Communication, Soore International University, Tehran, Iran. 1 9 2025 15 2 160 181 13 01 2025 15 04 2025 Background and objective In scientific texts on crisis management in Iran, crisis mostly refers to natural disasters and less attention has been made to man-made disasters. In this article, by emphasizing three prediction, prevention, and preparation phase of crisis management, we aim to identify the driving factors and the consequences of mainstream media’s effective activism in managing socio-political crises in Iran. Method This is a qualitative study. The participants were 15 media policymakers, experts in the field of crisis management, and politicians in the field of socio-political affairs in Iran, who were selected by purposive and snowball sampling methods and semi-structured interviews continued until reaching until reaching theoretical saturation. The data analysis method was the thematic content analysis.  Results From a total of 250 initial codes, 159 basic themes, 26 organizing themes, and 8 global themes were obtained. Based on the findings, the role of the media in socio-political crisis management before, during, and after the crisis included supporting public opinion, raising awareness, holding responsible institutions accountable, informing, and having strategic function. The factors driving effective media activism in predicting socio-political crises included infrastructure drivers, functional capability, human resources, professional standards, and social capital. The consequences of effective media activism in predicting socio-political crises were: Social, political, and media’s social responsibility-related consequences.  The factors driving effective media activism in preventing socio-political crises were divided into the drivers related to the public and the drivers related to the government/crisis managers. The consequences of effective media activism in preventing socio-political crises were divided into macro and micro consequences. The factors driving effective media activism in preparing for socio-political crises included process-related, content-related, and contextual drivers. The consequences of effective media activism in preparing for socio-political crises were categorized into three areas: Educational, psychological, and functional outcomes. Conclusion The mainstream media in Iran can have effective activism in predicting, preventing, and preparing for social-political crises.   720 Special A Collaborative Model of Humanitarian Assistance for Maximum Coverage of Areas Affected by Natural Disasters Jahromi Rajabi Golnush k KeshavarzFard Razieh l k Department of Industrial Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, North Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran. l Department of Industrial Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, North Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran. 1 9 2025 15 2 182 201 28 09 2024 05 04 2025 Background and objective Natural and human-made disasters have long-term, negative, and sometimes irreparable impacts and consequences. Proper response to these disasters requires effective management of relief services. Influential parties in such operations include humanitarian organizations, donors, and the government. One of the solutions to increase performance in emergency and humanitarian supply chains is to utilize the capacities of non-governmental organizations (NGOs). This study aims to present a collaborative model based on game theory that examines the cooperation between donors, humanitarian organizations, the government, and NGOs.  Method The collaborative model is designed based on the problem of maximum coverage of damaged areas caused by a natural disaster. By considering the number and diversity of players, it takes into account the extent of the disaster and the number of affected areas in relief assistance. It also considers the quality of relief services and the competence of NGOs. This can allow for a default order to prioritize qualified NGOs with the required capacities in the event of a disaster. The developed model was solved using a hypothetical numerical example and GAMS software, and underwent a sensitivity analysis. Results The results obtained from the model provide valuable insights into the optimal actions of each player in the humanitarian supply chain during a disaster. This model takes into account the capacities and capabilities of each player, as well as the quality of services provided by the private sector, allowing for more efficient allocation of resources and ensuring maximum coverage of affected areas. The model also considers qualitative assessments conducted in the pre-disaster period and allows for prioritization of qualified NGOs during a disaster. This can significantly improve the effectiveness of disaster management efforts. Conclusion The collaborative model is designed based on the problem of maximum coverage of damaged areas caused by a natural disaster. By considering the number and diversity of players, it takes into account the extent of the disaster and the number of affected areas in relief assistance. This can significantly improve the effectiveness of disaster management efforts. It also considers the quality of relief services and the competence of NGOs.    735 Special A Two-echelon Model of Location-routing Problem for Optimizing Relief Operations in Natural Disasters Jamali Hossein m Kabiri Naeini Mehdi n Elahi Zeynab o m Department of Industrial Engineering, Payam Noor University, Tehran, Iran. n Department of Industrial Engineering, Payam Noor University, Tehran, Iran. o Department of Industrial Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Yazd University, Yazd, Iran. 1 9 2025 15 2 202 229 16 12 2024 05 05 2025 Background and objective The location-routing problem (LRP) during disasters is a fundamental challenge in managing relief efforts to the affected areas. One of the most significant limitations in this context is the effective coverage of relief bases and the ability to provide timely aid to the affected area. In this study, a two-echelon model for LRP is developed, where each relief base can only provide services within a designed coverage radius. The goal is to determine the optimal locations for relief bases and routing relief teams to minimize relief time and cost at both levels.  Method We combined the covering tour problem (CTP) with the two-echelon LRP to propose a model named “two-echelon relief covering tour location routing problem” (2E-RCTLRP). To solve the LRP in a large scale, a metaheuristic genetic algorithm (GA) was developed and utilized. To validate the proposed model, five small-scale problems were solved, and the solutions obtained from the proposed GA were compared with the exact solutions obtained from GAMS software. Also, a sensitivity analysis of the CTP was conducted to determine the necessary conditions for using the CTP and two-echelon methods for relief problems. Results The developed GA was efficient and converged to the optimal solution. The sensitivity analysis results showed that two-echelon methods provide significantly better results than single-echelon methods. Additionally, the comparison of the solution for the non-synchronization of tours at two levels and the proposed model demonstrated the necessity of using the proposed model.  Conclusion The proposed model is an effective method to improve relief operations and strengthen crisis management during natural disasters.   731 Special Bow-tie Risk Assessment of Hydrogen Gas Leakage From the Chlorination Unit of a Combined-cycle Power Plant Mohammadfam Iraj p Eskandari Tahereh p Department of Ergonomics, Health in Emergency and Disaster Research Center, University of Social Welfare and Rehabilitation Sciences, Tehran, Iran. Department of Occupational Health Engineering, School of Public Health, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran. 1 9 2025 15 2 230 241 07 12 2024 01 03 2025 Background and objective The combined-cycle power plants are one of the important types of power plants in the world with high occupational accidents. To reduce the costs for occupational accidents and reduce the lost days, finding the root causes of accidents in these industries is necessary. This study aims to assess the risk of hydrogen gas leakage from the chlorination unit of a combined-cycle power plant with once-through cooling system using the Bow-tie risk assessment method. Method At first, the hydrogen gas leakage from the chlorination unit of a combined-cycle power plant in Iran was selected as the scenario for probabilistic risk assessment. For finding the causes and consequences of the scenario, the bow-tie method was used.  Results We identified 44 basic events, three safety barriers that prevent the occurrence of the desired scenario (congestion, immediate ignition, and delayed ignition), and six consequences including flash fire, jet fire, fire ball, pool fire, explosion, and safe release of hydrogen gas. The probability of hydrogen leakage from the chlorination unit was 1.51×10-1%, and the most likely consequence was “explosion/jet fire/flash fire,” with a probability of 4.89×10-2%. Conclusion We identified the causes, safety barriers, and potential consequences of hydrogen gas leakage from the chlorination unit of a combined-cycle power plant. The malfunction of electrolyzers is the most significant cause and explosion/jet fire/flash fire is the most important consequence of hydrogen leakage.    739 Special Analyzing the Physical and Infrastructural Resilience to Fire Accidents in District 20 of Tehran, Iran, Based on the Geographic Information System Khodabandehlou Eslam Ali Hemmasi Amir Hooman Lahijanian Akramolmoluk Hassani Amir Hesam Mohammadi Ali Department of Environmental Management, Faculty of Natural Resources and Environment, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran. Department of Industry and Energy Engineering, Faculty of Natural Resources and Environment, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran. Department of Environmental Management, Faculty of Natural Resources and Environment, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran. Department of Environmental Management, Faculty of Natural Resources and Environment, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran. Department of Environmental Management, Faculty of Natural Resources and Environment, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran. 1 9 2025 15 2 242 265 29 12 2024 15 03 2025 Background and objective The present study aims to analyze the status of physical and infrastructural resilience to fire accidents in District 20 of Tehran, Iran based on the geographic information system. Method First, the criteria to evaluate the physical and infrastructural resilience were collected. Then, researcher-made questionnaires were completed by 15 experts from fire departments in Tehran, to rate the importance of these criteria. The weight of these factors was calculated using the Expert Choice 11 software. By layering the criteria using the weights obtained from the analytical hierarchical process (AHP) in ArcGIS software, version 10.6 and overlaying the layers, the final resilience map of District 20 was prepared. Results There were three main criteria, seven sub-criteria, and 21 indicators to evaluate the resilience. Based on the software output, the main criteria were prioritized as infrastructure resilience with a weight of 0.731, physical resilience with a weight of 0.188, and environmental resilience with a weight of 0.081. Based on the zoning map of resilience in the context of health, safety, and environment, it was found that 3.3% of the area (729,718 m2) had low resilience, 35.38% (7,802,578 m2) moderate resilience, 29.54% (6,513,646 m2) high resilience, 30.1% (6,639,824 m2) very high resilience, and 1.65% (364,196 m2) extremely high resilience. Conclusion According to the results, the District 20 of Tehran has appropriate physical and infrastructural resilience to fire and accidents.