1 2322-5955 Tehran Disaster Mitigation and Management Organization 706 Special The Effect of Selected Physical and Behavioral Factors on the Duration of Complete Crowd Evacuation in Emergencies: A Case Study of Bani Hashem Shrine Safarifard Ali b Mansoori Mohammadreza c Karimifard Leila d b Department of Architecture, Faculty of Art, Architecture and Urban Planning, Islamic Azad University, South Tehran Branch, Tehran, Iran. c Department of Architecture, Technical and Engineering Faculty, Islamic Azad University, Varamin Branch, Tehran, Iran. d Department of Architecture, Faculty of Art, Architecture and Urban Planning, Islamic Azad University, South Tehran Branch, Tehran, Iran. 1 3 2025 15 1 2 15 10 08 2024 13 01 2025 Background and objective The primary goal in emergencies is the complete evacuation of the crowd to save lives, but the behaviors of the crowd, their interactions with the physical environment, and the use of evacuation management strategies can affect its time, particularly in religious places. In this study, we aim to evaluate the impact of the crowd’s social dependencies and fear and the use of a phased evacuation strategy on the duration of emergency crowd evacuation in Bani Hashem Shrine. Method This is a descriptive-analytical study using the agent-oriented approach and the integrated framework for crowd evaluation and evacuation. The pilgrims to the holy shrine of Bani Hashem on special days, such as Muharram and Arbaeen, constituted the study population. Based on plausible scenarios, crowd evacuation in emergency and non-emergency situations was simulated using Pathfinder software to evaluate the effects of social dependency, fear, and the use of a phased evacuation strategy on the duration of crowd evacuation. Results To evaluate the effect of social dependency, simulations were conducted in four scenarios, with dependency rates of 5, 10, 15, and 20% of the population. The results showed an increase in the evacuation time by 623, 635, 651, and 675 seconds, respectively. To evaluate the impact of the fear factor, simulations were conducted in four scenarios, with fear rates of 5, 10, 15, and 20% of the population. The results showed that fear increased the evacuation time by 644, 675, 749, and 854 seconds, respectively. To assess the impact of phased evacuation strategy use, the simulation was carried out in three scenarios with evacuation delays of 45, 90, and 135 seconds. The results showed an increase in the evacuation time by 621, 632, and 647 seconds, respectively. Conclusion The duration of the complete crowd evacuation of the Bani Hashem shrine in normal and non-emergency conditions is 619 seconds. The crowd’s behaviors resulting from social dependencies and fear and the use of a phased evacuation strategy can increase the evacuation duration.  
712 Special Effective Factors in Organizing Volunteers to Participate in the Management of Urban Crises in Tehran, Iran Soltani Ahmad e Khankeh Hamidreza f Nasiri Ali g e Health in Emergency and Disaster Research Center, Social Health Research Institute, University of Social Welfare and Rehabilitation Sciences, Tehran, Iran. f Health in Emergency and Disaster Research Center, Social Health Research Institute, University of Social Welfare and Rehabilitation Sciences, Tehran, Iran. g Faculty of Health and Health Management Research Center, Baqiyatallah University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran. 1 3 2025 15 1 16 29 31 08 2024 16 10 2024 Background and objective Tehran, the capital of Iran, is prone to disasters, making it necessary to implement comprehensive preparedness plans. City managers need to optimize the participation of volunteers in order to effectively implement these plans. This study aims to identify the effective factors in organizing volunteers for potential crisis management in Tehran, Iran. Method This is qualitative study. The data were collected by the review of related texts and conducting semi-structured in-depth interviews with 23 experts including urban crisis managers and citizens of Tehran. The data from the interviews were analyzed using the content analysis method to extract the concepts. Results For optimum organization of volunteers in urban crisis management, four main themes and 17 sub-themes were extracted from 199 primary codes. The themes included: Culture building, planning, recruiting/organizing, and training. Conclusion Effective volunteering for urban crisis management in Tehran requires culturalization, proper planning and recruiting/organizing, and providing education to volunteers and managers by utilizing tools such as social media.   709 Special Evaluation and Prioritization of Nodes in Urban Critical Infrastructures for Increasing Resilience Against Disasters Using the DEMATEL Approach Ehrambaf Shooshtar Azar h Samouei Parvaneh i Messi Bidgoli Masumeh j h Department of Industrial Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Bu-Ali Sina University, Hamedan, Iran. i Department of Industrial Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Bu-Ali Sina University, Hamedan, Iran. j Department of Industrial Engineering, Golpayegan College of Engineering, Isfahan University of Technology, Golpayegan, Iran. 1 3 2025 15 1 30 49 14 08 2024 14 10 2024 Background and objective Critical infrastructures, including water, electricity, and wastewater, are highly interdependent. Disruption in one of these systems can have a cascade effect on other systems and disrupt the entire system. In this research, to increase the resilience of these infrastructures against disasters, we aimed to model the interdependencies between them and prioritize critical nodes. Method Based on the data for the urban network of Sioux Falls in South Dakota reported in a previous study, and taking into account its critical infrastructures, we used the DEMATEL method and Root Assessment Method (RAM) to identify the critical points of these networks for strengthening them. The study network had 21 nodes and there were five main criteria of node capacity, supply node, transmission node, connection with other networks (such as communication) and repair cost, and three sub-criteria of electricity, water and wastewater systems. To prioritize the nodes, we first obtained the weights of each criterion using the DEMATEL method. Then, using the RAM, we prioritized critical nodes that needed to be strengthened interdependent critical infrastructures in the pre-disaster phase. Results Using the DEMATEL method, the results showed that the node capacity criterion was the most important criterion in decision-making. Also, in most cases, the electricity sub-criterion had the highest local weight. Using the RAM, the identified critical nodes were the nodes number 5, 6, 13, and 15. These nodes are usually transmission nodes or major facilities. Parameters such as capacity, repair time, and reinforcement cost play an important role in determining the importance of nodes. Conclusion The node capacity, as the most influential factor, plays a key role in managing and improving urban critical infrastructures. The identified critical points require more attention. Reinforcement of these nodes can significantly increase the resilience and performance of urban critical infrastructures. Also, special attention should be paid to the interdependencies between critical infrastructures and necessary measures should be taken to reduce the interdependency.   715 Special Evaluation of the Effects of Air Pollution on Hospitalization and Death Due to Corona Crisis in Tehran Nazarian Alireza k Abedi Zahra l Nasiri Pour Amir Ashkan m Haji Seyed Mirza Hoseini Alireza n k Department of Environmental Management-Environmental Economics, Faculty of Natural Resources and Environment, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran. l Department of Natural Resources and Environment, Faculty of Natural Resources and Environment, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran. m Department of Health Services Management, Faculty Member of Health Services Management, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran. n Department of Natural Resources and Environment, Faculty of Natural Resources and Environment, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran. 1 3 2025 15 1 50 65 03 09 2024 05 11 2024 Background and objective The COVID-19 pandemic is one of the most important global crises in recent decades. The present study aims to investigate the effect of air pollution on the hospitalization and death rates due to COVID-19 in Tehran, Iran.  Method This is a descriptive-correctional study on data of hospitalized, recovered, and death rates due to COVID-19 in 141 hospitals and medical centers in Tehran from February 2020 to May 2022 obtained from the Ministry of Health and Medical Education. The data from 36 air pollution monitoring stations in Tehran (affiliated to Tehran Air Quality Control Company and the Environmental Protection Organization) were also collected. The pollutants in these stations based on the air pollution index (AQI) included PM10, PM2.5, carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), sulfur dioxide (SO2), and ozone (O3). Linear regression analysis, Pearson correlation test, and one-way analysis of variance were used to test the research hypotheses in SPSS software, version 26.  Results The effects of pollutants and the AQI on the hospitalization rate due to COVID-19 were significant. The pollutants O3 (β=0.765, t=2.049), CO (β=2.371, t=6.155), and PM2.5 (β=3.984, t=3.747) had a positive effect on the hospitalization rate, while the pollutants NO2 (β=-0.664, t=-2.198), PM10 (β=-0.813, t=-3.137), and the AQI (β=-2.806, t=-3.524) had a negative effect on the hospitalization rate. The effects of pollutants and the AQI on the death rate due to COVID-19 were also significant. The pollutants O3 (β= 0.840, t=2.203), CO (β=2.461, t=6.256), and PM2.5 (β=4.196, t=3.865) had a positive effect on the death rate due to COVID-19, while the pollutants NO2 (β= -0.736, t=-2.387), PM10 (β=-1.102, t=-4.166), SO2 (β= -0.312, t=-1.183), and the AQI (β= -2.658, t=-3.270) had a negative impact on the death rate. There was a strong and significant correlation between air pollution and death due to COVID-19 (r=0.849, P<0.001). Conclusion By controlling the concentration of air pollutants, it is possible to reduce the rates of hospitalization and death caused by COVID-19.  707 Special The Enablers of Healthcare Supply Chain Resilience for Public Hospitals in Iran Talaie HamidReza o o Department of Industrial Management, Faculty of Administrative Sciences and Economics, Arak University, Arak, Iran. 1 3 2025 15 1 66 85 11 08 2024 13 10 2024 Background and objective Recent disasters have shown that disruptions in the healthcare supply chain can lead to shortages of essential medical equipment necessary for proper patient care, creating medical and social crises, and increasing the demand for medical services. The present study aims to identify and rank the enablers of healthcare supply chain resilience in Iran, focusing on public hospitals. Method This is a descriptive mixed-method study with a cross-sectional design conducted in 2024. The participants included 20 experts from the management section of public hospitals in Isfahan, Iran, who were selected using a judgment sampling method. Based on a systematic literature review, the enablers of healthcare supply chain resilience were identified and ranked using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) by employing the paired comparison kernel in Expert Choice software. Additionally, the cross-impact matrix multiplication (MICMAC) approach was employed to analyze the interrelationships between enablers.  Results The identified enablers were classified into four main groups: elastic capabilities (Agility, flexibility), reporting capabilities (sustainability, security, supply chain network design, robustness), cognitive capabilities (supply chain risk management, awareness/sensitivity), and operational features (IT capabilities, speed, collaboration). The elastic capabilities ranked first among the enabling groups. Based on the MICMAC analysis, agility, flexibility, and speed were placed in the linkage category, indicating that these enablers had the highest impact and could be significantly influenced by other factors. Conclusion To enhance the resilience of the healthcare supply chain in public hospitals in Iran, relevant managers should pay special attention to the supply chain’s elastic capabilities (particularly agility) and reporting capabilities (mainly information technology). Also, they should incorporate long-term and sustainable strategies to increase the flexibility and speed of their plans.   722 Special A localized Environmental Scanning Model Tailored to Scanning Urban Crises for the Tehran Municipality Pourasghar Jalal p Arab Baferani Mohammadreza Momenizahed Mehrdad p Department of Future Studies, Faculty of Imam Hussein (AS), Imam Hussein (AS) University, Tehran, Iran. Department of Future Studies, Faculty of Imam Hussein (AS), Imam Hussein (AS) University, Tehran, Iran. Department of Future Studies, Faculty of Imam Hussein (AS), Imam Hussein (AS) University, Tehran, Iran. 1 3 2025 15 1 86 103 10 10 2024 03 12 2024 Background and objective One of the new ways of identifying and planning to deal with future crises is futures research. One of the techniques of futures research is “environmental scanning” (ES). It is a type of recording and obtaining information through exploration and search that is used to understand environmental changes and developments. This research aims to provide a localized model of the ES tailored to scanning urban crises for the Tehran municipality.  Method Participants were 12 experts who had a background in research or work in the field of ES and in Tehran municipality. Semi-structured interviews and focused group discussions were used to collect data. After reviewing the literature and existing models (n=13), the features of these models were extracted and ranked in terms of compliance with the missions of the Tehran Municipality based on the opinions of experts.  Results Bradley–Terry (1997)’s ES model ranked first with 114 points. The final ES process model had three sections: input, analysis, and output. The input section of the system included the departments responsible for ES. The analysis section was responsible for the ES system management. The output section was responsible for implementation and operational action. Conclusion The ES model provided in this study can help the officials of Tehran municipality and other organizations in Iran with scanning urban crises.   718 Special Identifying and Prioritizing Risk Factors in Supply Chain Logistics for Crisis Management Using an Integrated Fuzzy Approach Eskandari Mohammad Asghari Hamed Modiri Mahdi Faculty of Engineering and Passive Defense, Malek Ashtar University of Technology, Tehran, Iran. Department of Crisis Management, Faculty of Engineering and Passive Defense, Malek Ashtar University of Technology, Tehran, Iran. Faculty of Engineering and Passive Defense, Malek Ashtar University of Technology, Tehran, Iran. 1 3 2025 15 1 104 123 24 09 2024 15 01 2025 Background and objective Recent global events such as the COVID-19 pandemic, wars, and climate change have led to changes in demand and disruptions in the supply chain logistics, which can challenge the food supply and security. In this regard, accurate and effective identification of threats is necessary to prevent vulnerability. Therefore, this research aims to identify and evaluate the most important risk factors that threaten supply chain logistics.  Method For this purpose, Pareto analysis and an integrated fuzzy approach, including MICMAC analysis and total interpretive structural modeling, were used.  Results According to the previous studies and based on expert feedback, 16 factors were initially identified. After applying the Pareto analysis, 12 factors were selected for further analysis. Finally, natural disasters, mismanagement in supplier selection, transportation strikes, shortage of skilled personnel, and minimal fuel consumption were identified as the most important risk factors. Conclusion The results of this study can help managers and policymakers in Iran to make correct strategic decisions and thus achieve sustainable development goals by developing and increasing the resilience of supply chain logistics.