Background and objective: in order to prioritize the management plans of desertification based on the scenario studies to manage the desertification hazard in Razavi Khorasan province, research and gathering information is used through targeted questionnaires or a view of the formation of expert groups.

Method: in this regard, based on the research criteria (determination of Uncertainty) within the framework of a closed and objective questionnaire using the Delphi method, experts were identified and experts were distributed. In the following, we used 6 stages to perform the scenario planning.

Findings: the results showed that based on the results of the first phase of Delphi, in the first stage of analysis and analysis of the questionnaires, it was explained: climate criteria, water, human activities, vegetation, agricultural, soil criteria, soil, and finally erosion criteria. The first factor and the strongest factor in the first stage is the climatic factor. The criteria that were obtained in the final stage of the Delphi process from analysis and analysis of the questionnaires are: criteria of human activities, climate criteria, water criteria, Economy - social criteria, vegetation criteria, soil criteria, soil criteria, and soil erosion criteria. In the final stage, human activities and climatic factors play a role. Since these two factors have the greatest impact on this field as experts in this field, most are analyzed and analyzed.

Conclusion: The basic guidelines in these two areas can be referred to the management of human factors in both sectors, which will take action by applying new technologies and using efficient people and public education to reduce the impacts of this risk.